Retail Theft Gets Smarter And So Must Retail Security: ScanWatch CEO on the Rise of “Everyday Shoplifters”

As retail theft reaches its highest levels in over two decades, a new profile of shoplifter is emerging – and traditional security measures aren’t keeping up.

As consumer prices continue to surge, retailers across the globe are confronting an alarming new reality: retail theft has reached crisis proportions, with losses now measured in the billions.

Police-recorded shoplifting offenses in England and Wales hit 530,643 in the year ending March 2025 – a 20% increase from the prior year and the highest figure since 2003. UK retailer losses topped £2.2 billion in 2023/24, with local shops alone logging an estimated 6.2 million retail theft incidents in the past year.

While luxury items like alcohol and electronics were once prime theft targets, the profile of retail theft is shifting. Everyday products – milk, cheese, butter, bread – are increasingly ending up in the crosshairs. This isn’t organized crime targeting high-value merchandise. It’s something retailers find far more difficult to address: ordinary shoppers making calculated decisions at checkout.

The Economics Behind Rising Retail Theft

“This new trend is a clear and direct result of consumer goods price increases. The retail industry has historically accepted a ~2% shrinkage rate from theft. But what we’re now seeing is an unsettling shift: so-called ‘accidental shoplifters’—everyday shoppers with no prior criminal background—are contributing to these numbers.”

— Saulius Kaukėnas, CEO of Agmis and ScanWatch

The data supports this assessment. In the US, retailers reported an 18% rise in average shoplifting incidents in 2024 versus 2023, alongside a troubling 17% increase in violence during thefts, according to the National Retail Federation’s 2025 study.

This behavior, experts suggest, stems not just from economic pressure, but from the perceived anonymity and ease of self-service checkouts. Without human oversight – and with a growing sense of “just this once” justification – more people are skipping scans or swapping barcodes. What was once rare behavior is now alarmingly common.

Self-Checkout: Convenience Turned Vulnerability

The expansion of self-checkout technology, designed to reduce labor costs and speed up transactions, has inadvertently created new opportunities for retail theft. The numbers are stark: theft at self-checkouts is up to 65% higher than at traditional registers, with shrink rates reaching 3.75% of inventory – four times higher than staffed checkout lanes.

Perhaps more concerning is the psychological shift. According to recent surveys, 69% of consumers find it easier to steal from self-service kiosks than from staffed registers. An estimated 20.1 million Americans admit to having stolen from self-checkout stations, with Gen Z shoppers more than twice as likely to engage in retail theft at these terminals compared to older generations.

“Self-checkout was built for speed, not security,” Kaukėnas explains. “But computer vision technology now allows us to bridge that gap – monitoring transactions without slowing them down.”

Organized Retail Crime: The Other Side of the Problem

While everyday shoplifters represent a growing challenge, organized retail theft remains a significant threat. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2025 study, organized retail crime has evolved beyond physical store theft into more sophisticated operations. Over half of surveyed retailers reported increases in shoplifting and merchandise theft (52%), digital and ecommerce fraud (55%), and phone scams (70%) conducted by ORC groups over the past 12 months.

The threat is global in scope – 67% of retailers reported involvement of transnational ORC groups in thefts against their company during the past year.

Compounding the problem, the majority of retailers (64%) say they reported less than half of their store-related theft incidents to law enforcement, citing lack of response as the primary reason – suggesting actual retail theft figures may be significantly higher than recorded.

These aren’t impulsive acts – they’re coordinated operations that target specific products for resale, often overwhelming store staff and traditional security measures. The convergence of opportunistic retail theft and organized criminal activity creates a complex threat landscape that demands equally sophisticated countermeasures.

How Retailers Are Fighting Back Against Retail Theft

The retail industry isn’t standing still. Forward-thinking retailers are deploying AI-based solutions that can detect and prevent theft without compromising customer experience.

Solutions like ScanWatch use computer vision, anomaly detection, and behavioral tracking to identify retail theft in real time. These systems analyze self-checkout usage patterns, detect inconsistencies between scanned items and basket contents, and alert staff before a theft is completed – all without creating friction for honest customers.

The Path Forward: Smarter Security for Evolving Threats

The rise of casual shoplifting underscores a broader trend: as shopper behavior evolves, retail theft prevention must become smarter, faster, and more adaptive. Traditional approaches – security tags, cameras, and loss prevention officers – remain valuable but insufficient against the scale and sophistication of modern retail theft.

Retailers who embrace AI-powered security solutions position themselves to address both opportunistic theft and organized retail crime while maintaining the convenience that customers expect. Those who don’t risk watching their shrinkage rates climb alongside industry-wide losses that already run into the tens of billions.

The retail theft crisis isn’t going away on its own. But with the right technology and approach, retailers can protect their margins without sacrificing customer experience – turning a vulnerability back into the convenience it was always meant to be.